Chinese Weather Balloon? Not Likely!

With the media in a frenzy over Chinese balloons drifting across the US, it would seem that tensions between the US and China are at an all-time high now that the US military has shot the balloon down. What exactly has happened with this balloon, what technical data supports its potential spying capabilities, and does this mean that balloons present a new danger to the west?

What exactly happened with the Chinese “Spy” Balloon?

Last week, a giant balloon was spotted flying over the mainland US and Canada, which was clearly visible to civilians on the ground. While high-altitude balloons are not uncommon, this balloon, in particular, was unusual in its huge size of approximately 90 feet in diameter. For perspective, typical weather balloons that fly at these altitudes are around 20 feet in diameter and carry instruments capable of measuring temperature, windspeed, and air pressure. In addition to its massive size, the payload being carried by the balloon was also unusually large, with solar panels, motors, and a dome structure at the bottom.

After the balloon was spotted by civilians, public statements from government officials claimed that the balloon was a Chinese spying platform designed to undertake surveillance operations over key security sites, including nuclear silos. As the balloon continued to travel across the mainland US, many questioned why the Biden administration hadn’t shot down the balloon, with the response being that falling debris would put American lives at risk and that the balloon itself posed no threat. However, as the balloon moved over the Atlantic Ocean, an F-22 fighter jet shot the balloon down using an AIM9X Sidewinder missile, and the remains crashed into ocean water approximately 40 to 50 feet deep.

Now, a recovery operation is underway to identify the debris, reverse engineer the technology, and understand what precisely the balloon was doing. During this kerfuffle, the Chinese government insisted that the US remain calm during the entire dilemma, constantly stating that the balloon was a simple weather research platform. After the balloon was destroyed, the Chinese government vowed action against the hostilities and would do what it could to provide justice to the relevant companies responsible for the balloon.

What data supports the balloon being a spy platform?

Despite the multiple claims from China that the balloon was a weather monitoring platform, there are some key pieces of technical data that counter these claims.

The first and most shocking evidence is that US officials stated that the platform being carried by the balloon has motors and propellers. Typical weather balloons lack propulsion capabilities and are designed to rise in altitude, take measurements, burst, and then safely bring the payload to the ground via parachutes. Instead, this balloon never burst and was able to determine its own flight path. Incidentally, this flight path took the balloon over Montana, a well-known site for US nuclear capabilities. In fact, it has even been reported that the balloon was able to remain stationary while over Montana, further providing evidence of its manoeuvrability. 

The second piece of evidence supporting the spying claims comes in the design of the payload. The payload design consists of two large solar panel arrays stretching out from a singular structure with a dome bottom. Such large panels indicate that a substantial amount of power is required, while the dome structure at the bottom is likely to be a servo-mounted camera. The dome shape provides a movable camera with a high degree of vision, something that is commonly found on missile heads and security cameras.

Source - BBC

The third piece of evidence comes from the sheer size of the balloon. As previously mentioned, weather balloons used to make atmospheric measurements are commonly 20 feet in diameter, while this balloon was around 90 feet. When considering the lift of a balloon is related to its volume, a balloon that is four times larger in diameter has approximately 16 times the lifting capacity (r3 rule). Such a significant increase in lift means that the payload being carried is substantially larger than any typical weather monitoring device.

Fourth, the balloon was never reported by Chinese authorities or private companies to US airspace officials. If such a balloon had indeed drifted off course, it would make logical sense to inform other countries of the situation. Considering that the balloon has propulsion capabilities, it is unlikely that this balloon drifted over the US. Additionally, the Chinese government has made warnings about shooting the balloon down while simultaneously not mentioning those responsible for its design and launching. 

Do balloons present a new danger to the west?

While such balloons may seem problematic, their danger to national defence is somewhat limited. Civilian aircraft can already fly over large portions of land, and space-based spy platforms are likely to be able to provide 24-hour surveillance on military sites. For example, Google Maps allows anyone to look at restricted sites, including Area-51 (which supposedly doesn’t exist), nuclear sites, and even the most remote areas of North Korea. A large portion of these images would have been taken from space, and this would have been done with civilian-grade equipment. Therefore, military-grade telescopic equipment could easily create a spy platform capable of resolving individual people on the ground.

Larry Mayer / The Billings Gazette / AP

What the balloon likely represents is a statement of Chinese power and capability. The ability to put a balloon over adversaries while making threats around its destruction puts a government in an awkward position. Not shooting the balloon down demonstrates weakness, and its destruction potentially indicates hostile intentions. In this case, China has arguably learned that the Biden administration is slow to act, hesitant to use force, and only uses force once force to show its hand.

It is likely that the technology in the balloon will not be entirely sophisticated, primarily due to the risk of falling into enemy hands. When the balloon is recovered, there will be no doubt that surveillance tech is found, but it will likely be commercial grade at best. In fact, it wouldn’t even be shocking if the platform had minimal capability, with the sole purpose of just upsetting the US and wasting a perfectly good AIM9X Sidewinder.